Friday, February 24, 2023

2023 Lowest Lake Level Prediction Date

 That's right folks, step up and place your bets. I've been playing with this data for years and it's time to see if it can stand up to a most basic prediction.

Here's a snap of the 10 year average drawdown graph, with lake levels on the y-axis and ....Zzzzz. You get it. The black was 2020, but I'm focused on the grey 10 year average.

The current lake level is 656.36ft, which if you look at the average, normally is reached by Feb 9th, so we're a bit behind schedule. Yes, yes, I could be showing this all in pretty comparison graphs, but I've got no time for such frivolities. The graph is up there and you track it yourself down the the average low of 654.70 on March 11th.

My guess? Well, I've never cross referenced this data properly with rain totals, we'll save that for retirement, so just based on this simple average?  I say Ameren is not going to get aggressive with  generation and flow so, maybe .25 feet a day, so ...carry the one...divide by zero...and I get....

March 9th, 2023...low level 11am.

Money plays!