tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-104036922024-03-15T12:47:58.405-05:00Ozark DragonInformation and editorial regarding the Lake of the Ozarks and Missouri's Ozarks region.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger177125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-13446412335115142072024-03-15T11:08:00.009-05:002024-03-15T12:47:24.899-05:00"Lakefront Empire" Review S1 E1<p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">"The Midwest Coast"</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="313" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mbhTtFTxE40" width="471" youtube-src-id="mbhTtFTxE40"></iframe></div><br /><p></p><p> <span style="font-size: medium;">I just watched the first episode of HGTV's "Lakefront Empire". While I'm pleased the producers seem to be avoiding the same formula as shows that feature more interpersonal drama then home listings, I was quite disappointed in how The Lake area was being presented. Yes, I use capital letters when referring to The Lake, because it is THE BEST LAKE IN THE WORLD.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The show follows the somewhat tired formula of interviewing buyers and realtors as they search for the home of their dreams here at the Lake of the Ozarks, but the producers seem to lack any real sense of what makes The Lake so special. This is clear in their choice of realtors and the homes showcased, both realtors and homes lacked any charm whatsoever. I've have seen many, many homes over the decades and what was shown in the first episode, ranging from $500K to $2M were homes I would not have given a second glance. Not they they were bad homes! Far from it, but they were not especially appealing, charming, or unique. In my opinion The Lake has a plethora of more interesting and exciting homes to choose from at any given time. I actually felt sorry for the folks about to drop $2 million on a home that was simply...blah.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">That's the good part of this review.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here's the bad part.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">What the hell? I saw a real estate agent telling potential buyers that mentioned having parties in their new home about "everybody using" in Party Cove, and practically in the same breath as telling them she spent 15 years in federal prison? I watched a second realtor revealing a drunken past and had to come "crawling" back to his family for a job? THESE are the realtors that the producers chose to showcase homes at The Lake? I'm sorry but if I was a potential Lake Ozark home buyer , I would have been turned off completely.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">And did I hear anything more than the tired old "1100 miles of shoreline, more than the coast of California" to tell the world how special our lake really is? There was bragging about how nearly every home comes with a dock, but was anything said about the <a href="http://www.ozarkdragon.com/p/why-lake-of-ozarks-has-perfect-shoreline.html#google_vignette" target="_blank">quality</a> of that 1100 mile shoreline or how it affects their docks and the value of a home? How about the uniqueness of The Lake that allows us to have restaurants and bars accessible by water? From what I saw, you might as well have been looking at lakefront property on Lake Hamilton AR, or some Corps of Engineers lake.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Dis-Honorable mention for using segue shots of the lake that make it look like boaters will have it all to themselves on any given day. But now I'm just being mean.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hopefully future episodes will do better.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-90551890858814110222024-03-15T10:29:00.002-05:002024-03-15T10:29:46.732-05:002024 Drawdown Is Well Over<p> As predicted, with the start of the rainy season, lake levels stayed at the low point for only the briefest of time. With Paddlefish season starting today, and mild temperatures, I don't see any return to lower levels happening. We are heading toward full pool now.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYltzFXeO_0NPqJYTPBSUt_zwAbM9OctkXf2WBYJnL7pJpQOeJodIjxQAnfY2Utj7Q_xErIf9YL4Jg_trSy8qgnC-Tq6VeKBDO5xdfdsfkwV2kDUDmiHvLumICJdEbFD3pdzkLaLSt788ZddQIDSpJPEaR4X0ZITLrrd3R1x7yBheE1ZY85JMfAw/s7662/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3669" data-original-width="7662" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYltzFXeO_0NPqJYTPBSUt_zwAbM9OctkXf2WBYJnL7pJpQOeJodIjxQAnfY2Utj7Q_xErIf9YL4Jg_trSy8qgnC-Tq6VeKBDO5xdfdsfkwV2kDUDmiHvLumICJdEbFD3pdzkLaLSt788ZddQIDSpJPEaR4X0ZITLrrd3R1x7yBheE1ZY85JMfAw/w640-h306/Picture1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And with that, I'll call the 2024 lake drawdown watch ...done!</div><br /><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-71279811800394703072024-03-06T15:58:00.004-06:002024-03-06T15:58:59.294-06:0014 Year Average Levels vs Guide<p> This is a comparison of Lake Ozark levels against the guide curve Ameren is supposed to follow. Pretty darn close.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5h_Jgu088thzVDOG7PJAFExKd2JT3Qi3gR3mo-75qOFb9NSNDKVPU1nNDDOhQxGvvOVuTgjWa18IDPQGAxDUI8Rrtmaj1bGjWPq96a2I6UMQJ-eborwaKG3owmG9jglDtbwyx51j9FnJL2nH2moopSwA_Bj_EPQJuHTUY7ppXQVCO8KSIuuKoVQ/s3312/2010-23avg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="3312" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5h_Jgu088thzVDOG7PJAFExKd2JT3Qi3gR3mo-75qOFb9NSNDKVPU1nNDDOhQxGvvOVuTgjWa18IDPQGAxDUI8Rrtmaj1bGjWPq96a2I6UMQJ-eborwaKG3owmG9jglDtbwyx51j9FnJL2nH2moopSwA_Bj_EPQJuHTUY7ppXQVCO8KSIuuKoVQ/w640-h242/2010-23avg.png" width="640" /></a></div>Oh yeah...that bottom orange guide curve? That's how low they are allowed to go in an "emergency". <p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-42474738101435395992024-03-06T13:30:00.007-06:002024-03-06T15:16:13.556-06:00Lake Drawdown Watch - Part 2 - Are we there yet?<p>March 6th, 2024.</p><p>With up to 2 inches of rain forecasted for the lake area over the next 48 hours, today could well end up being the low point of the year at 653.92 feet above sea level around midnight this morning. Here's the chart.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmstxstLLMB76Wy9bu_70Yi78MLqbkmmWRlaiVGdxFhRvQFmpf51AMUjsdYxY3nhLgoZ1DRDUMRmrhm8Z5BUdGB_QgMLuGUYQ1WlbaVDfXmFDnPKtAZJxIU8OPE71XeRy5cGARVEWwsDv13T65S0wjGuvFlC5OgmZOOXFu5JLibi-UrE5WoO8dEg/s7689/2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3705" data-original-width="7689" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmstxstLLMB76Wy9bu_70Yi78MLqbkmmWRlaiVGdxFhRvQFmpf51AMUjsdYxY3nhLgoZ1DRDUMRmrhm8Z5BUdGB_QgMLuGUYQ1WlbaVDfXmFDnPKtAZJxIU8OPE71XeRy5cGARVEWwsDv13T65S0wjGuvFlC5OgmZOOXFu5JLibi-UrE5WoO8dEg/w640-h308/2024.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Sharp readers may well ask, what happened to February 29th? And you would be correct, there is no data for that day on this chart. Which is why the graph takes a quick dive from Feb 28th to March 1st. I would chart it if it happened to be the lowest point of the year, but my spreadsheets just do not account for the extra day and I tend to ignore it for these purposes.</span></div></div><div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">While it's hard to see actual levels and dates on the above image, the difference between the average (in orange) and this year (in ...turquois?) levels may look significant but it is really only six inches. Each horizontal bar represents 3 inches. This year's drawdown, while about as low as we've been in the past fourteen years, is far from exceptional. The lowest levels for this data set was 2021 and 2016 at 652.86 and 652.83 respectively, over a foot lower than today's low.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In short, if this is the low level of the year, it's timing and depth would be well within average.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">How long we stay at this bottom is the only real question left, but it's pretty clear it won't be long.</div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-50444310382737521932024-02-16T12:17:00.004-06:002024-02-20T10:47:14.784-06:00Lake Drawdown Watch 2024<p> <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">With my newly updated 14 year average (in orange), we can now track the current year's drawdown.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgML32nKkT4tYVvY_cv2WF1BkuUVQbhIUhKxn9A2mbl3w4ZNm-pQEXaCNplYxpDdDC_Ycnbp6A6R0BMWFKtEeDbx6GbLVuaduozdzIGvjV3pjk3XR-ijEPWKXY7Bl_fWZloPl2cj95NarTmSScfLQkYkHHwhIqEyyTkAFbMgXnfqjtgOct3W1wUrQ/s7477/2024DrawdownWatch.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3645" data-original-width="7477" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgML32nKkT4tYVvY_cv2WF1BkuUVQbhIUhKxn9A2mbl3w4ZNm-pQEXaCNplYxpDdDC_Ycnbp6A6R0BMWFKtEeDbx6GbLVuaduozdzIGvjV3pjk3XR-ijEPWKXY7Bl_fWZloPl2cj95NarTmSScfLQkYkHHwhIqEyyTkAFbMgXnfqjtgOct3W1wUrQ/w640-h312/2024DrawdownWatch.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The precipitous drop in mid-January was due to the extreme cold nationally, and Bagnell Dam was producing power (based on flow rates).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">As you can see by the multi-year average, we're not at the bottom yet, but things seems to be progressing along as expected. With today's level at 656.3 we have at least another foot to go.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">On my Bingo card, I have March 10th, at 10:00am, with a level of 654.57 as the time and level for the lowest point of the year. A point in time I like to think of now as the "Unofficial End of Winter at the Lake"</span></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #0000ee; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div></div><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-78254026331179661632024-02-16T09:43:00.001-06:002024-02-16T09:43:43.443-06:00What 14 Years of Lake Level Data Says About the Annual Drawdown<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> I'm finally caught up on adding the last few years of data to my long running tally of lake levels and analysis. The data set now includes hourly levels and flows from 2010-2023. Below is the detailed graph of hourly lake levels averages for that time period throughout the year.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6RQwuDYRrNi2-tKKPqPw5EaBtW9E-X-DC9TwbO1vMHhcuZ8TuGLeei43opzo6Y0xsqqjX3vqh-H3AVO7liYp48pVZRu6HPqLrGIGredYyPFvkZFC7f8qPbOick1Or2VJjeWWU1A834YjhbznjFg6tXwjDp3JCnBMZlBF2guapRr9ZWAm9AZZYeg/s4592/14YearAvgLevel(2010-23).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2037" data-original-width="4592" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6RQwuDYRrNi2-tKKPqPw5EaBtW9E-X-DC9TwbO1vMHhcuZ8TuGLeei43opzo6Y0xsqqjX3vqh-H3AVO7liYp48pVZRu6HPqLrGIGredYyPFvkZFC7f8qPbOick1Or2VJjeWWU1A834YjhbznjFg6tXwjDp3JCnBMZlBF2guapRr9ZWAm9AZZYeg/w640-h284/14YearAvgLevel(2010-23).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Not much has changed from my last big average chart for 2010-2019, the additional four years of data only smoothed out the graph a bit. Of note though, is the little bump at the end of the year caused by the intense flooding in December 2015, which is still impacting the averages for that time of year.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">As far as the annual drawdown is concerned, 14 years of data shows the longest, lowest stretch is from March 6th-13th with lake levels averaging just under 655ft, with a peak low of average of 654.57 on March 9th.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-58376755428020703552024-02-09T15:31:00.005-06:002024-02-16T09:46:08.262-06:00The End of Tunnel Dam<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I've been a fan of the Tunnel Dam ever since I discovered it while looking for places to kayak in the lake area many years ago. My "discovery" was a bit embarrassing actually. I spent a lot of time at Ha Ha Tonka even before it was a state park and I had never heard of Tunnel Dam until the early 2000s.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The big news is that Show Me Electric Power Cooperative has elected to not renew the license to operate the hydro-electric facility, and it appears power generation will cease this year. Lake Expo has a very good <a href="$LocalW1sd0m$" target="_blank">article</a> on the situation and I recommend reading it for more information on the local impact, including this nice history link from the <a href="https://www.shomepower.com/about-sho-me/niangua-river-dam/">Show Me Electric Power Cooperative</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Best described by Show-Me Electric, "<span style="background-color: white;">Attention was especially attracted to one potential site where a natural cave or tunnel pierced the base of a narrow ridge, bypassing a meander of the river, thus affording the opportunity of obtaining an artificial fall of water and creating a forty-foot head for a hydraulic turbine." In the case of Tunnel Dam, this 300 ft. wide ridge cuts through <b>six miles</b> of "meandering" river.</span></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwFszBKggLng-n7wFCMm811fyfOyuxzyHdZlcDmxLREyKYyKh7L2owdyR0sJjgH2tGYSFU9NcBk1brZIjGpAtQgExHyRdTibRdMkzUbmFSi588lOqwccm_r5C4E9FgSj_w9APuOwg5GaEb6hplR8wjucrghZRbggJhqjh6Z_nRO9_JXXmWFY1kTA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="942" data-original-width="1606" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwFszBKggLng-n7wFCMm811fyfOyuxzyHdZlcDmxLREyKYyKh7L2owdyR0sJjgH2tGYSFU9NcBk1brZIjGpAtQgExHyRdTibRdMkzUbmFSi588lOqwccm_r5C4E9FgSj_w9APuOwg5GaEb6hplR8wjucrghZRbggJhqjh6Z_nRO9_JXXmWFY1kTA=w640-h376" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite view of Tunnel Dam next to its Generator House</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">By creating Tunnel Dam, Lake Niangua was also created, which is fed by the Niangua River, a river as beautiful as any in Missouri, only less protected, and surrounded mostly by private farm land. Lake Niangua is very tranquil and beautiful as well, but is too small to be anything more than a nice place to fish.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Tunnel Dam is five miles southwest of Ha Ha Tonka (as the crow flies). The image below tries to show location and scale of everything.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQe_QT7Y_VvnyOIJdRqqs_3TLdcJZV0zFqvrT5ecA6cu7hnP8WKdqdnq0wlTxwrWlercSp04vJ59pFX0zGjxp7PTpLVh6iDQqCAV2sVqlzLy1AWVsoQ0GEXtZF1SSm4sw-L5_zZLtMUAK0XyFcWwhJlNPEVYOzjfTJDmqGFHvhCGBaUswgLfW7dA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1161" data-original-width="1523" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQe_QT7Y_VvnyOIJdRqqs_3TLdcJZV0zFqvrT5ecA6cu7hnP8WKdqdnq0wlTxwrWlercSp04vJ59pFX0zGjxp7PTpLVh6iDQqCAV2sVqlzLy1AWVsoQ0GEXtZF1SSm4sw-L5_zZLtMUAK0XyFcWwhJlNPEVYOzjfTJDmqGFHvhCGBaUswgLfW7dA=w640-h488" width="640" /></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Niangua River is a major source of water for the Lake of the Ozarks, and with the fate of the dam structure itself, and the lake it forms, in question we need to examine the potential impact to the Lake of the Ozarks.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">If the dam is removed in a controlled manner, the impact on the Lake of the Ozarks would be negligible, but if the dam remains, but not properly maintained, it could ultimately fail. A catastrophic failure, a total and rapid collapse, would cause a great deal of damage downstream, all the way into the Lake of the Ozarks.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">But lets assume the dam is decommissioned in a controlled manner, whereby it is removed and any sudden deluge of water avoided. What this means for the Niangua River is an uninterrupted flow of water from Hwy 44, past Bennett Springs, all the way into Lake of the Ozarks. We already have a sanctioned 12 mile float below Tunnel Dam, called the <a href="http://www.ozarkdragon.com/2016/06/the-big-niangua-river-trail-is-here.html" target="_blank">Big Niangua River Trail</a> that ends at the Lake of the Ozarks, but with the Tunnel Dam removed, this could turn into many dozens of miles. The potential for floats and water traffic goes beyond just kayaks and canoes. </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>I have paddled up river from Lake Niangua and can say it is a very serviceable river for small power boats.</span><span> </span><span>My jet boat runs the Current River all the time in water barely knee deep, even less. Who knows how far up the Niangua River one could reach from the Lake of the Ozarks without the Tunnel Dam structure in the way. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">NOTE: Full disclosure, Whistler Bridge, just below Tunnel Dam is an impassable low water concrete bridge so any boat traffic would have to remain above or below it, but that barrier too could be removed. While I am a bit sad Tunnel Dam's life is ending, I think the idea of the Niangua River being a serviceable recreational artery all the way into the Lake of the Ozarks intriguing.</span></p><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-79144060000184241902024-01-25T11:24:00.003-06:002024-01-26T08:35:15.440-06:002023 Total Flow Infographic<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> I have a lot of catching up to do, but off-hand I'd say 2023 may have broke some records, at least as far as total flow through the dam is concerned, going as far back as 2009. I usually measure the total amount of water passing through Bagnell Dam per year in the BILLIONS of gallons. This year, not even 1 billion gallons. The dam was operational for power generation only a bit over 10% of the time. In terms of marketable power sold on the grid, versus operation costs, I think last year was an unprofitable one.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgJEuLJ4vwwihVAf17Ws8PL5wc9Doy6DRFDjbI7XifhT9P-34bJZJjo0VFKv3shznPIyDIJV7VYGRX-eyDA-OwD7yunZc2gJe0al65g-_gIFpTojqsfgv84hKcDBGfdqSyycvA0eLeI1f6oZnEw4NV1_a0xF6HjMzGOKGs6a80UW0Z_ncKtXLwtw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1563" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgJEuLJ4vwwihVAf17Ws8PL5wc9Doy6DRFDjbI7XifhT9P-34bJZJjo0VFKv3shznPIyDIJV7VYGRX-eyDA-OwD7yunZc2gJe0al65g-_gIFpTojqsfgv84hKcDBGfdqSyycvA0eLeI1f6oZnEw4NV1_a0xF6HjMzGOKGs6a80UW0Z_ncKtXLwtw=w640-h336" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-26786770673546714862024-01-23T16:18:00.002-06:002024-01-23T16:18:48.192-06:002023 Monthly Lake Level Summary<p> This is what drought looks like at the Lake of the Ozarks. It's not about the lake levels, their fairly normal, but look at those flow rates! We'll be diving in to this one a bit, later.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5yNlZO2u374d8FL14slZGRzfuCAcI3s0mf8ljSit-pvfyrtmCdI4pqYaarl1K2tgllUUJr6ofY_BwyJVrSxx_mVHH67gJ_vFlzrOdSiHsdJWCgEAiblTOI63TpIQTkCplj6FUp8cL13ynTxgZVGlLnync0kO8GQyTPJ1jqGP2KS4R5L8SkSrRfQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="992" data-original-width="1900" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5yNlZO2u374d8FL14slZGRzfuCAcI3s0mf8ljSit-pvfyrtmCdI4pqYaarl1K2tgllUUJr6ofY_BwyJVrSxx_mVHH67gJ_vFlzrOdSiHsdJWCgEAiblTOI63TpIQTkCplj6FUp8cL13ynTxgZVGlLnync0kO8GQyTPJ1jqGP2KS4R5L8SkSrRfQ=w640-h334" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-20777676380428574252022-08-18T08:19:00.003-05:002022-08-18T08:22:17.738-05:00Summer Nights<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQE5o3soKU4OFOKIKL6bMwtyKd7pK2N_tND6HrVIdt7oF8ylE4rrai1UY8vpTVtkFNJzb3A8QbeDMZxncgWbi5BHYSY-8wUk8SWsj73iEugzjGpuIScEJGh23vmACNs7PPKsUojb6mycjlwjOH4MKzh-QokgONE4WvGxJ6RJM2ERfTv9teFKQ/s4032/PXL_20220818_005351608.jpg" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="2268" data-original-width="4032" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQE5o3soKU4OFOKIKL6bMwtyKd7pK2N_tND6HrVIdt7oF8ylE4rrai1UY8vpTVtkFNJzb3A8QbeDMZxncgWbi5BHYSY-8wUk8SWsj73iEugzjGpuIScEJGh23vmACNs7PPKsUojb6mycjlwjOH4MKzh-QokgONE4WvGxJ6RJM2ERfTv9teFKQ/w640-h361/PXL_20220818_005351608.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A bit of contrast enhancement to the original I'll admit. Not much though!</td></tr></tbody></table>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comVLG OF 4 SSNS, MO 65049, USA38.1986207 -92.63880169.8883868638211538 -127.7950516 66.508854536178845 -57.482551599999994tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-37003453016504345172021-09-13T13:55:00.002-05:002021-09-13T13:55:36.784-05:00Yellow Jackets...Everywhere<p>I've got a few acres of woods around me so things like bear (yes, there are bears at the lake), raccoons, deer, snakes, and insects are just a part of life. If you have property at the lake, in general you'll have to cohabitate with just about all of God's creatures of the Midwest, but this year is like nothing I've ever seen before when it comes to flying insect pests. This year's most wanted...the yellow jacket.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLMQ5saHz8DynJB21DG0ndTxgPWUdYJwib_afl_TfRAWRIH8SSFDnf9Ep2Kmfng6MOWaIkXi_Hc51qyM4Kf65FRuU6k5Mtoxb7YC2A0DIPrjIp3c4adDY9bVctxAUePdF_96YVAw/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="1600" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLMQ5saHz8DynJB21DG0ndTxgPWUdYJwib_afl_TfRAWRIH8SSFDnf9Ep2Kmfng6MOWaIkXi_Hc51qyM4Kf65FRuU6k5Mtoxb7YC2A0DIPrjIp3c4adDY9bVctxAUePdF_96YVAw/" width="320" /></a></div><br />They are EVERYWHERE this year at the lake. I have a colony I've been chasing throughout the property for years now, so I thought this year's brood was mine alone to tackle, but I've been taking a consensus this summer and it seems everyone has them. We were at Frankie and Louie's this weekend and even with traps galore they were all over the bar area. It made getting a drink a little intimidating and those poor bartenders seemed resolved to take their lumps.<p></p><p>So if you're dealing with them too, know it's not just you.</p><p>Yellow Jacket, or a hornet? My wife and I are having this debate. The picture above is a Yellow Jacket, and looks like the ones I'm dealing with, but the nests I've seen are in ground which is more indicative of a hornet. I've read both types go to ground as well as building those famous paper mache (sic) style in trees. They're pretty much the same critter in terms of aggressiveness and painful sting though so it doesn't really matter. Plus they both eat the same thing, basically nectar, although Yellow Jackets have a taste for dead meat apparently. I'll leave it to the reader to determine which they are battling, but there are plenty of sites that will help you identify the culprit.</p><p>And we're blaming climate change for this widespread phenomena in 3...2...1</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-9721715991661003862020-07-16T09:40:00.001-05:002020-07-16T09:40:44.213-05:00<div><br /></div><div>Found this on Reddit, and I'm just going to leave it here. A "SemiPontoon". It'll be all the rage on the lake next year I'm sure.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEth66RsJopuzsMnmm6U58oxErrhlWv4alxtkc7eV4SFQL0YYMM2UGjSIRQB5WRY2PBgx9nglmoooZHzOkhdwB_2dTwJHuDy0xtrxhgkiYeTDyp6VHLjn9NkopO3gW8CMlJVq2QQ/s2048/jdz40sczl7b51.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1838" height="781" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEth66RsJopuzsMnmm6U58oxErrhlWv4alxtkc7eV4SFQL0YYMM2UGjSIRQB5WRY2PBgx9nglmoooZHzOkhdwB_2dTwJHuDy0xtrxhgkiYeTDyp6VHLjn9NkopO3gW8CMlJVq2QQ/w701-h781/jdz40sczl7b51.jpg" width="701" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/hs8djo/custom_made_semipontoon_boat/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2xUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-82673412703239635612020-01-28T10:30:00.002-06:002020-02-21T10:58:09.991-06:00The Decade That Was (2010-2019) - Enter Climate ChangeA new decade is upon us so it's time to take a look a the decade that was in terms of data. Getting right to it, below is the candlestick summary chart for lake levels and flow for the period of 2010-2019. If you're not familiar with this style of chart you can click <a href="http://www.ozarkdragon.com/p/candlestick-charts-explained.html" target="_blank">here</a> for a full explanation.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfsj9gR9uW6HoglokOCDc4glXn-5U1HsSCymCXy-9J3tGAN9BnewmygxdLDGOaDp1aSzgfE6xb6h_vp6L_wquZDpT1iFl2yOV6UKgl9QNbXLpdmfc641LbykuZidBnUbhFTAz0qw/s1600/Decade_2010-19.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="1600" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfsj9gR9uW6HoglokOCDc4glXn-5U1HsSCymCXy-9J3tGAN9BnewmygxdLDGOaDp1aSzgfE6xb6h_vp6L_wquZDpT1iFl2yOV6UKgl9QNbXLpdmfc641LbykuZidBnUbhFTAz0qw/s640/Decade_2010-19.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lake Levels and Flow Rates for 2010-2019</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The graph (click to enlarge) is a construct of 10 years of hourly data consisting of 87,600 data points. While I wouldn't dignify that much data as Big Data, it is a significant enough number that certain trends might be statistically significant.<br />
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So what can 87,600 data points tell us about the Lake of the Ozarks? Obviously it can show what has happened over the past ten years, but more interesting is that it may also indicate what will happen in the future. I'm not talking about predicting daily lake levels, or flow rates, but rather trends. One trend that stands out, almost visually, is the gradual increase in total flow over the years. If you compare the actual data for total yearly flow from 2010-2014 to the period of 2015-2019, you'll see that 10.652 trillion gallons passed through Bagnell Dam in the first half of the decade and 16.107 trillion gallons in the second half. That's an increase of 66% which is rather significant. You can easily see this trend by the graph alone comparing the left half orange bar heights to the right half. The latter half of the decade also contains the highest monthly flow rates and two record flooding events in July and December of 2015.<br />
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If that's not obvious from the first graph, let's look at a comparison of the first five years of the decade and the last from an average daily flow point of view. Below is a two-line graph, the green representing 2010-14, and the red 2015-19. From this graph it's even easier to see the difference in the latter half of the decade. With the exception of early spring, which in of itself may be statistically relevant, the period from 2015-2019 consistently shows a higher average flow rate. Even more interesting is that flow rates remain high throughout the summer months, rather than tapering off after spring. This means, more water, flowing all the time.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqTyQIuYgpExBEPh_j5jusB1xgFmliJwtYOQE6QYqCRLlCfyaMFXspInF6HKjx4k_kUVI5B0nz_HcKZbg7Ri-qxpyn5hPX8cyWXKNXzS0amJqxR8W_-zaAP30tVdokFLrvXxcx4A/s1600/AvgFlowCompare%25282010-2019%2529.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqTyQIuYgpExBEPh_j5jusB1xgFmliJwtYOQE6QYqCRLlCfyaMFXspInF6HKjx4k_kUVI5B0nz_HcKZbg7Ri-qxpyn5hPX8cyWXKNXzS0amJqxR8W_-zaAP30tVdokFLrvXxcx4A/s640/AvgFlowCompare%25282010-2019%2529.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
Climate change is not just about a hotter earth but the impact it has on the water cycle which has far reaching effects. The Lake of the Ozarks is very much a part of that water cycle and Bagnell Dam's ability to manage the changes in the water cycle is critical to the future of the Lake of the Ozarks. We'll be exploring this subject in greater detail in coming posts.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-85945240392864349782020-01-03T12:53:00.000-06:002020-01-03T12:53:16.696-06:002019 Full Year Lake Level and Flow Rates ReviewThe amount of water that has flowed through Bagnell Dam this year is truly astonishing. Here's the big picture.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFJZwoBvPxz8EC4FjcLkf9FYO8vu_ab6fjDY0n2RxpoV8XBbEa1utRIBphEm6ikJWKxuah7bQELJ0pZkJybaaSbCJjnxmETBTGoJH7GYVw1EmcG_qdzHUu5pR6ODxc38WAa-d_5A/s1600/Infograph_2019.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFJZwoBvPxz8EC4FjcLkf9FYO8vu_ab6fjDY0n2RxpoV8XBbEa1utRIBphEm6ikJWKxuah7bQELJ0pZkJybaaSbCJjnxmETBTGoJH7GYVw1EmcG_qdzHUu5pR6ODxc38WAa-d_5A/s640/Infograph_2019.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
Nearly 3 times the "normal" flow for one year due to flooding. While the Lake of the Ozarks suffered no direct effects of the surrounding waters, over 37% of operational time was spent in maximum turbine flow conditions. How much of that interpolated into power generation, only Ameren knows, but it was there for the taking.<br />
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Here's how December itself looked on the daily candlestick graph.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO-NJ1kDb13pFdAcsLbuf8d_HLI6A9_irQVk1FLKxBQnmyzYhbXTdaoh_yjJda6GIWq9NBndO01sne_L-F_DoSdhUfHuI7WDvdCcGEPl1Cak7gUILC38tdwDUbo8fJqDpoffa-EA/s1600/December_2019_cdl.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO-NJ1kDb13pFdAcsLbuf8d_HLI6A9_irQVk1FLKxBQnmyzYhbXTdaoh_yjJda6GIWq9NBndO01sne_L-F_DoSdhUfHuI7WDvdCcGEPl1Cak7gUILC38tdwDUbo8fJqDpoffa-EA/s640/December_2019_cdl.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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And the hourly detail.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWJ7VekLIXQ79utDkvgLWronHig8qNO8loU2L4gPETZPhPQsX4NVW2xow5_9f6G-xX6aRq-QCgLoySPBZil_Y64swdl7di_Ejhh9MPJiUCRPA-Im9lbx5TQdm3FghGs9VSvkB1Uw/s1600/December_2019_det.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWJ7VekLIXQ79utDkvgLWronHig8qNO8loU2L4gPETZPhPQsX4NVW2xow5_9f6G-xX6aRq-QCgLoySPBZil_Y64swdl7di_Ejhh9MPJiUCRPA-Im9lbx5TQdm3FghGs9VSvkB1Uw/s640/December_2019_det.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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And finally we can now see the daily candlestick graph for the entire year. (click any image to enlarge)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHAb8jU2AWKM9l_s9g5B-avwAfDVW-TOnxWGoYmfHuCKm2pqImoU8uYZnfKg0SQ3q_XI9w01qzxEDiERNKdoFNxZZep9uTGsuTmMZDiFoSJD6LyPdJ6shlysyzSUKgBkQS1CBikw/s1600/Full_Year_2019_cdl.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHAb8jU2AWKM9l_s9g5B-avwAfDVW-TOnxWGoYmfHuCKm2pqImoU8uYZnfKg0SQ3q_XI9w01qzxEDiERNKdoFNxZZep9uTGsuTmMZDiFoSJD6LyPdJ6shlysyzSUKgBkQS1CBikw/s640/Full_Year_2019_cdl.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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And the monthly summary version<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgndZWGLnd8ddtoeo3Z1S2q3KrByi3vOBnoeSsxdDpdmi_N58be9Yctw2xR3taM2FcKto2dtF712H3Xpp6A64glFBrYyjbYYAkE2HI8Z5980CfjEz5s4SdUohKLb0uYbA93v_iu8w/s1600/Monthly_Summary_cdl.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgndZWGLnd8ddtoeo3Z1S2q3KrByi3vOBnoeSsxdDpdmi_N58be9Yctw2xR3taM2FcKto2dtF712H3Xpp6A64glFBrYyjbYYAkE2HI8Z5980CfjEz5s4SdUohKLb0uYbA93v_iu8w/s640/Monthly_Summary_cdl.png" width="640" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-31794042289325062022019-08-16T12:35:00.004-05:002024-01-26T12:47:45.096-06:00Kayaking on Lake of the OzarksIt's funny that I've never put up a post about kayaking on the Lake of the Ozarks because it's become one of my favorite activities on the lake. Judging by the proliferation of kayaks just in my cove alone, it appears I'm not the only one.<br />
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Modern kayaks are amazingly simple watercraft. Typically vacuumed formed out of a single piece of poly-carbonate plastic, the same stuff used to make trashcans. They are relatively light, tough as hell, and require very little maintenance, and the best part is, the motor is (usually) very reliable! Usually I say, because failures have been known to happen!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1o41gXm0simsec4mp39tLYRYc2bUsMibm0RR1V-suN1JoAC89jU_PFicj8ZHqPpmOeB7z6Rn3BNRCH7M33uUutdaW0s4c5578GtULmxcD6rD6BBDbTAFbSJxPpIW_UAjuCKF91w/s1600/20190813_192036.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1o41gXm0simsec4mp39tLYRYc2bUsMibm0RR1V-suN1JoAC89jU_PFicj8ZHqPpmOeB7z6Rn3BNRCH7M33uUutdaW0s4c5578GtULmxcD6rD6BBDbTAFbSJxPpIW_UAjuCKF91w/s400/20190813_192036.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">15 year old ($285) Bending Branches paddle destined for the burn pile.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
There are two basic styles of kayak the sit-top and the cockpit style. Sit-tops are more recreational and also tend to be the style of choice for fisherman. The cockpit style is one where you slip into the body cavity of the kayak itself. In this category there is a full spectrum of types ranging from the long slender "sea-kayaks" at one end of the scale, to the short white water style on the other.<br />
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I have a Perception Carolina, which is considered a touring kayak which are on the the sea-kayak range of style, typically anything over 11 feet long.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLzuivVSj91qAoQ3neNCP3mb9_k9VF2yuxVS7B4CeYS-SqieHJq5jqML8UOCSjnNYn0KU-OtbH1GaI9IFDuUFjcZooekLFqcd-eOWB8AtisrKu7NDppx9XJyJCq8e2hj39YtQunw/s1600/Florida_1920.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="1600" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLzuivVSj91qAoQ3neNCP3mb9_k9VF2yuxVS7B4CeYS-SqieHJq5jqML8UOCSjnNYn0KU-OtbH1GaI9IFDuUFjcZooekLFqcd-eOWB8AtisrKu7NDppx9XJyJCq8e2hj39YtQunw/s640/Florida_1920.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">My wife in our Perception Carolina in Florida - "Are there sharks in these waters?"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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I've had my kayak for more than 10 years now, a 14.2 foot Carolina, made by Perception. I've taken it to the ocean and on just about every river in Missouri, including the Osage. At the lake I've probably spent more hours in it than I have my 27ft Sea Ray in the past ten years. I can only guess how many miles I've paddled but I know it's in the hundreds.<br />
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Here's some more pics!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh4VoLBIFlnEBFqqxFwQIoBPCuSf2AQ7720xFsDVcASS1WU6HYlhTTAbxPuqNwJZ1CKnKBPmjgF13ZGl2DOZPA1omET10IALVyacrvD5ZeRX1PPowLkyzF0z3vIBurilztZXctcg/s1600/Florida_Kayaking.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1077" data-original-width="1600" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh4VoLBIFlnEBFqqxFwQIoBPCuSf2AQ7720xFsDVcASS1WU6HYlhTTAbxPuqNwJZ1CKnKBPmjgF13ZGl2DOZPA1omET10IALVyacrvD5ZeRX1PPowLkyzF0z3vIBurilztZXctcg/s400/Florida_Kayaking.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Florida - Getting past the breakers is easier than getting back in!</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
When the lake flooded July 4th, 2015 and the Governor called for a no-wake-lake, I was able to paddle out to the main channel. Not a boat in sight.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">July 2, 2015, 8MM Main Channel</td></tr>
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Paddling around in the winter time is some of the best kayaking, but be safe! I have a life jacket on at all times when paddling in the winter!<br />
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One of the cool things about a kayak is being able to sneak up on wildlife, which is not always a great idea. Startled deer do funny things.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I got a lot closer than this and the poor deer nearly jumped in the kayak when she finally spotted me.</td></tr>
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One of my favorite things to do in the kayak is fish of course. The Carolina does fine fishing, but as I said there are kayaks made specifically for fishing, and if that's your thing, I would recommend you take a look at them over a touring kayak such as mine.<br />
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Some tips when it comes to paddling on the Lake of the Ozarks.<br />
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Don't stray too far from docks and shoreline, especially on weekends. There's far too much boat traffic to be safe in a kayak in open water. Try to be in a position to duck beside a dock in quick order if a boat doesn't seem to see you. You're too low to the water in a kayak to be easily seen. Of course, the back of a cove or in no-wake zone is relatively safe, but you should always keep an eye out for power boats and PWCs.<br />
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Let people know where you're going and how long you expect to be gone if you plan on being out of site of your home dock. People worry.<br />
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You are required to have a life jacket with you, on is optional, but it would be wise.<br />
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Buddy up if you can. I personally kayak alone quite a bit (me time), but it is more fun with a companion.<br />
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Teach your children how to kayak. I have never met a child that didn't enjoy being in a kayak. There's something empowering about it to them. I suppose it's the first serious mode of transportation that they are in charge of maybe, but kids in the cockpit with you will enjoy it as well. If they can fit. My granddaughter is about 60lbs and she's only now getting too big to sit in front of me and leave me room to paddle. But now she's old enough to paddle her own kayak! My four year old grandson fits just fine still. I've taught all of my nieces, nephews and friends to kayak and by far they are the most popular water toys we have.<br />
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Don't tease the people on paddle-boards by doing circles around them. A stand up paddle-board (SUP) is fine, but I like to make way on the water even if it's under my own power. SUP's are slow, difficult to maneuver and not very versatile, but to each their own.<br />
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I could go on and on bragging about how much joy that little boat has brought me over the years. The stories I could tell. I've truly had some amazing experiences. If you think it might be something for you, I would encourage looking for something used first. A lot of people buy them, use them briefly and decide it's not for them. You can usually pick up a very "low hour" kayak if you just keep an eye out or tell people you're looking.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-48979397712811155742019-08-16T10:14:00.002-05:002019-08-16T10:14:49.116-05:00It Was the Boat!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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This is from the Parade of Boats 2017 on Bagnell Dam. This is a beautiful console boat, called Deep Impact. I believe it is for sale.<br />
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I got in a little trouble for this picture with the wife. I swear, I was trying to get a picture of the boat! ;-)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-80171154850364203102019-07-22T12:52:00.002-05:002024-02-14T12:47:23.324-06:00How Expensive Are Homes on the Lake of the Ozarks?From Redbook Magazine <a href="https://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_2136489180"></span>Online<span id="goog_2136489181"></span></a> here are the top most expensive lakes to live on in the U.S. (from lowest to highest)<br />
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Boone Lake TN $1.37M avg<br />
Lake Martin AL $2.95M avg<br />
Lake Burton GA $3.02M avg<br />
Long Lake MN $3.13M avg<br />
Smith Mountain Lake VA $3.4M avg<br />
White Rock Lake TX $4.3M avg<br />
Lake Pend Oreille, IA $4.48M avg<br />
Fort Loudoun Lake TN $4.7M avg<br />
Lake Pontchartrain LA $4.7M avg<br />
Lake George NY $5.32 M avg<br />
Lake Champlain $5.7M<br />
Lake Michigan $6.35 M avg<br />
Lake Travis TX $10.86 M average<br />
Lake Austin TX $12.9 Million Avg<br />
Lake Washington WA $45 Million example price<br />
#1 Lake Tahoe $75 Million example price<br />
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Anyone who has visited the Lake of the Ozarks is typically amazed at the number of homes along its vast shoreline. Visitors thoughts inevitably turn too wondering just how much it costs to buy a home here, or if it might be a good investment. For the most part, home investments on the lake are like anywhere else, but with an interesting twist on the old location-location-location rule. The primary location factor for a lake home is of course waterfront. As the decades have passed since the lake was formed lake property has gone through many changes, campgrounds of the 50s and 60s soon succumbed to condominiums and homes, while larger lots with modest summer cabins became full sized second homes in the 80s and 90s. Shawnee Bend, once mostly pristine forested shoreline became an opportunity to build entire communities once the new bridge made access more reasonable from the east side. Because of these often slow but sometimes rapid changes it's not unusual to see homes approaching the seven figure mark adjacent to a home half the price. With some area exceptions such as Shawnee Bend shoreline homes are usually a mix of homes ranging from summer cabins to multi-family "McMansions".<br />
<br />When it comes to lake homes, the waterfront is every bit as much of a factor to price as the home itself.<br />
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Are lakefront homes on the Lake of the Ozarks "expensive" relative to other lakes in the U.S.? The story mentioned at the start of this post was picked up by Redbook magazine and MSN, but I was a little dismayed to not see the Lake of the Ozarks on the list. I know many lakes across the country, and there is no question that the Lake of the Ozarks is the most developed I know of, so how could it not make the list? We all marvel at many of the homes on the lake and the clear opulence they demonstrate, so the report would seem to indicate there are lakes that command even higher prices? After some quick digging I discovered the source of the article's information and downloaded the entire report. Turns out, "most expensive" is literally what was meant by the news articles, but that is not the whole story and the report from which the list was created is far more interesting in detail..<br />
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But first, back to that list of the most expensive lakes in the U.S.. If we define most expensive as being average price, the Lake of the Ozarks doesn't make the cut. Sure, we have multi-million dollar homes but only about 1% of Lake of the Ozarks homes are valued at $2 million or more. This is in comparison to the most expensive lake, Butler Lake in Florida, with 50% of its homes priced at +$2Million. But again, that doesn't tell the whole story since this list does not factor the number of homes on any given lake. Consider that if there is a small lake with a few multi-million dollar homes then it can likely boast at being THE most expensive lake to live on. What is the real question we should be asking? Real estate is very much a supply and demand industry and any lake with only a few homes to sell is quite a different market than one with many thousands. As an investment, in order to understand the value of a home we must take a look at the lake's total market value, the combined total of all the homes and property on a lake.<br />
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Let's go back to our most expensive lake for example. The total market value for Butler Lake, is about $160 million dollars, and this includes available land. So how does that compare to Lake of the Ozarks? The total market value for the Lake of the Ozarks is $392 million dollars, well over twice Butler Lakes total value. Unsurprisingly the Lake of the Ozarks is the largest lake market in the state of Missouri, followed by Table Rock Lake with a respectable market value of $252 million dollars. The lake with the largest total market value in the U.S. is Lake Michigan at $1.3 BILLION dollars. Surprised? Don't be. Remember we are talking about lakes, not beachfront property on the ocean and lake Michigan is a HUGE lake, with 500 miles more shoreline and hosts many major metropolitan cities like Chicago and Milwaukee. In terms of total market value the Lake of the Ozarks ranks as the 8th largest market for lake homes in the U.S. Excluding available property, meaning lakes that are more fully developed, Lake of the Ozarks ranks 5th in the U.S. for largest market.<br />
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So let's take a look at the numbers for lakes within the state of Missouri itself. When we ask the question all over again as to which lake is the most expensive, the Lake of the Ozarks comes in second with an average home price of $363K compared to Lake Springfield's average of $475K. Again though, the number of homes is a factor as the Lake of the Ozarks dominates as the largest home and property market of all the lakes in Missouri, with Lake Springfield not even making the top 5 in total market value despite it's "most expensive" status.<br />
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Here's a breakdown of the housing market for the three largest lake home markets in the state.<br />
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The Lake of the Ozarks cannot boast being the most expensive lake in the U.S. but that is a good thing in my opinion from a real estate investment point of view. Our lake can boast a healthy variety of homes and prices to make for a vibrant market and cater to just about anyone's price range. Like any real estate purchase a persons specific needs are what is important and whether it be a condominium, summer cabin, second home, or retirement McMansion, buyers can find just about anything they need.</div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-16356552415578690602019-07-10T11:47:00.000-05:002019-07-26T08:33:28.001-05:00Mapping the Lake - Camden County GIS Resource UpdatedFor those who may not be aware, Camden County has an excellent resource for lake area homeowners. It is a GIS map of the entire county with all kinds of informational layers (property lines, owner names, school districts, etc.). A must for folks buying a home on the lake to find out exactly what the property is all about.<br />
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<a href="https://camdengis.integritygis.com/H5/Index.html?viewer=camden">https://camdengis.integritygis.com/H5/Index.html?viewer=camden</a><br />
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You can also get there through the Camden County <a href="https://camdenmo.org/" target="_blank">website</a> with a little digging.<br />
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The map has just been updated for 2019, but you can still look at maps from 2016 and 2010.<br />
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Very cool.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-40323587095084744562019-05-31T14:00:00.000-05:002019-06-04T10:32:07.470-05:002019 FloodingI'll be posting my monthly graph of lake levels and flow rates for the Lake of the Ozarks tomorrow, or Monday, but as you will see despite the high water levels in other lakes and rivers, the Lake of the Ozarks is operating at normal levels. How can this be you may ask?<br />
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What's so special about the Lake that it is spared the ravages of flooding while the Osage and Missouri Rivers flood and Truman Lake is busting at the seams?<br />
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With the 30 day outlook calling for a wetter than normal June, things may not improve much.<br />
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The answer as to why the Lake of the Ozarks seems out of step with other bodies of water in the area is not a simple one, but it is important. It has everything to do with the very different purposes for which the two dams, Truman and Bagnell were built, who controls them, and the river basins they serve. I've spent a little time explaining it <a href="http://www.ozarkdragon.com/p/anyone-familiar-with-my-blog-is.html" target="_blank">here</a> if you're interested.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-27946423114013159952019-05-01T13:40:00.002-05:002019-05-01T13:46:30.525-05:00Nikola Wav - The First Electric WetbikeIt would seem the time is here. It was inevitable that someone would try to design, produce, and sell an all electric wet-bike and the electric vehicle company Nikola has done it. At lest to the point where you can get on a waiting list (for free no less!)<br />
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Nikola (as in Nikola Tesla, but not as in Tesla vehicles) has been making ATV style electric vehicles for some time with promise that a water sport vehicle was coming. Well, it's here. There are a lot of questions I have as an armchair boat designer and engineer, not the least of which is how do make an all electric power plant safe in the water, but for now, let's see what Nikola is saying about their new toy.<br />
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Not much. But on my concerns about safety, Nikola seems to be touting the IP68 standard of waterproofing. This waterproofing standard is not really made for things like wetbikes, but more for small devices like mobile phones and requires a device be able to handle being fully immersed in up to 1.5m (a smidgen under 5 feet) of water. So the Wav is rated about the same as your Galaxy S10 for operation under water. Of course, that's just fine for the occasional roll-over and usage and I'm guessing that Nikola is banking on their design never sinking below the waterline.<br />
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Another point feature is "Instant Torque". That's an interesting angle. Instant torque is a feature of all electric motors. In actuality all electric motors exhibit maximum torque at zero velocity (which is why train locomotives tend to use electric motors powered by generators driven by diesel engines). So I suppose it's reasonable to equate that to "instant". But what does that mean for the performance of the wetbike? Answer: That depends. There's nothing inherently performance enhancing about having maximum available torque at the prop (or impeller in this case). It's can be an advantage, but many other factors would need to be examined in the design of the propulsion to determine any specific performance boost. But that's a completely different discussion.<br />
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The Wav apparently goes full digital for display with a twelve inch 4K dashboard but from the image below it looks like you could watch a movie or something.<br />
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And then there's my favorite, the front LED headlamp (not a bad idea), and the rear taillights. Taillights? Do they work like brake lights or somethings?<br />
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There are no other details regarding performance, run time, charge time or pricing at this time.<br />
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But you say hey! Why so snarky? I mean these guys are doing it aren't they? Sure, but I think you're going to have to bring a lot more to the table then just an electric power plant, better storage and a curious hull, to get people to buy these things. Take a lesson from Tesla, Nikola. Early adopters want a compelling reason to go electric. Elon Musk gave them super-cruise and auto-pilot with brain melting performance. What does the Wav provide but novelty and dubious performance enhancements? I wish them luck though, I really do, but the consumer is king on this battlefield.<br />
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www.nikolamotor.com/wavUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-5131565633508549002019-03-28T09:58:00.002-05:002019-03-28T10:00:29.568-05:00Which Website Is This?Looking at some statistics, I suppose a bit of clarification is needed. This page is linked by a few of my owned domains, and you may have arrived here by any number of them, depending on your search results. To be clear, this web page is the home of the following web domains:<br />
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<u>OzarkDragon.com</u> : Look at any map of the lake and it's pretty easy to see it resembles a serpent of some sort and for many years the marketing efforts for the Lake of the Ozarks tried to use the "Magic Dragon" moniker for advertising. In fact, the annual car show and the Lake Ozark Fire Department still use it to this day. While I've always felt the imagery was appropriate, it never really took off as a brand. I always liked it though and will continue to promote this website under that primary web domain.<br />
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<u>Trailscope.com</u>: Another domain I've owned for some time that was intended for a project involving virtual tours. It would have been sort of a Google Streetview for trails and rivers. But as the old saying goes, if you have a good idea there are already a hundred people working on it, but if you have a great idea a thousand people are working on it, and Google already has some hiking trails on Streetview, but no rivers. I'm looking at doing rivers as something to do in retirement but the rig is quite complex. But that's another story, for another blog, for another day.<br />
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<u>TravelOzarks.com</u>: A fairly obvious domain good to cyber-squat. This domain is in recognition that while I primarily focus on the Lake of the Ozarks, my interests really run throughout the Ozark region. Another blog, another day...<br />
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Those are the three primary web domains that will bring you to this page and the reason for their existence. Just in case you were wondering. BUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-74663147355566630262019-02-07T09:32:00.001-06:002019-02-07T11:17:32.355-06:00January 2019 Lake Levels and Flow RatesLake levels, lake levels. Is that all this blog is about?<br />
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What can I say, I have a life. Rest assured, there's plenty more to talk about and we'll be getting to it this year. But for now...<br />
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January is the official start to the lake draw down. When Ameren allows lake levels to fall below "normal" in order to accommodate shoreline work, and prepare for the coming spring rains. Spring is coming. My black tail hawks are working on their nest, and the groundhogs have started sniffing around for a place to start a new tunnel under my house, so I know it's coming.<br />
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The lake has already started it's inexorable fall to the March low. Below is the hourly detail with the grey line being the new moving five year average.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb35G-brvohOZnbbhU_KyBX3s3yT69Yhkq-CPGyqVe8yBVA57I-SFAOJLqwC6tKup5k6EO7V7A3alaSFZeqvV-BkYriAkAYHc0iHzrrHMSWWPyjvP4WrG74ymH7QnOOsYQMde1Sw/s1600/January_2019_det.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1153" data-original-width="1600" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb35G-brvohOZnbbhU_KyBX3s3yT69Yhkq-CPGyqVe8yBVA57I-SFAOJLqwC6tKup5k6EO7V7A3alaSFZeqvV-BkYriAkAYHc0iHzrrHMSWWPyjvP4WrG74ymH7QnOOsYQMde1Sw/s640/January_2019_det.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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And below the daily candlestick</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigremwEehiO4C9VnTY6IeBTDg3qacAJwa-MuZzfZWTMiMETK1yoMH8GP9mSs0YIp3dxxSXx2TWzAKdIf6fMcU9jNmDb83TnuPRfKXZZnNdYPF31w7WSAftIK8Mk0UCYGTxYCmfpw/s1600/January_2019_cdl.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="945" data-original-width="1600" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigremwEehiO4C9VnTY6IeBTDg3qacAJwa-MuZzfZWTMiMETK1yoMH8GP9mSs0YIp3dxxSXx2TWzAKdIf6fMcU9jNmDb83TnuPRfKXZZnNdYPF31w7WSAftIK8Mk0UCYGTxYCmfpw/s640/January_2019_cdl.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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All in all, nothing remarkable and a nice steady incremental start to the draw down.</div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-28680505152335363572019-01-09T15:52:00.000-06:002019-01-09T15:57:09.121-06:002018 Annual Lake Levels and Flow ReviewAnother year has come and gone, and with the annual draw down to prepare the lake for 2019 only days away, let's take a look at what happened in 2018.<br />
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Here's a quick summary graph that I made to try and put things in perspective. The lake is still just a flooded river and water flows in and out constantly. Putting up raw numbers like nearly one and a half trillion gallons of water passing through Bagnell Dam sounds impressive but what can we do to give it real meaning? I've provided some conversions to help get a grasp of just how much water that is. Also, the circle in the middle with percentages indicates Bagnell Dam's operational statistics, how much of the time electricity actually was being generated. The answer is only about 25% of the time.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnDDcGSSOFOoBmZ_0MOzqqLrXxnFeEMRSU-MpAxKJAdY_HRTALFyWVGTpuIcBCtwI5v8xQD41t_BWxBKhD-WnyrI39XBv3AYLQbCnt-Zvn4TaOrqHL0ekGZJglllYwX5s9_9DKkw/s1600/2018_Summary_Infographic.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1600" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnDDcGSSOFOoBmZ_0MOzqqLrXxnFeEMRSU-MpAxKJAdY_HRTALFyWVGTpuIcBCtwI5v8xQD41t_BWxBKhD-WnyrI39XBv3AYLQbCnt-Zvn4TaOrqHL0ekGZJglllYwX5s9_9DKkw/s640/2018_Summary_Infographic.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Operations in flood conditions were negligible, and I doubt the gates were actually open at all, I simply calculate that the maximum flow through the turbines is anything over 37,500cfs (cubic feet per second), but improvements to the turbines may have increased that number. I'll have to revisit that. The more telling number is the 75.8% operational time below 5000cfs, an indication no commercial electrical power is being generated beyond the "house" generators used to power the Osage Energy Plant itself. This is a very low amount of power generation, and may be due to the extensive work being done this year on Bagnell. In short, Bagnell Dam was probably operating at a loss this year.</div>
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As far a lake levels themselves are concerned, this year is probably the most unremarkable we've had since 2012. Levels were right along the guide curve with no surprises. Below is the <a href="http://www.ozarkdragon.com/p/candlestick-charts-explained.html" target="_blank">candlestick</a> summary for each month of the year.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnZJQz9WxhxFSbJZ95pxP02olCXpHJOLuQhILTrlJyh76_BtI3RlUalEYkjnzaF5fveA9cVZ1tZgAofPwtXBJDnLupw9bNKJAplYO6Jg432RRNVfveI8Pi5ZDWf2fl3pkpH4-f0A/s1600/2018_Monthly_Summary.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1600" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnZJQz9WxhxFSbJZ95pxP02olCXpHJOLuQhILTrlJyh76_BtI3RlUalEYkjnzaF5fveA9cVZ1tZgAofPwtXBJDnLupw9bNKJAplYO6Jg432RRNVfveI8Pi5ZDWf2fl3pkpH4-f0A/s640/2018_Monthly_Summary.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Below is the daily candlestick for the entire year.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8g22tMjrsGWUzZmQRTC23Zb6DUMnwX5PFMz0q44RwfdqQC_hg_ZMXyuZsJvWichggXs6T8hnRP27F2D8OLHjRfrxxuzceI6pDkDEAIcRr-3rN3rJd2upZPlkXgpsxTK3zW5Ruyw/s1600/2018_Full_Year_Detail_Candle.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="1600" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8g22tMjrsGWUzZmQRTC23Zb6DUMnwX5PFMz0q44RwfdqQC_hg_ZMXyuZsJvWichggXs6T8hnRP27F2D8OLHjRfrxxuzceI6pDkDEAIcRr-3rN3rJd2upZPlkXgpsxTK3zW5Ruyw/s640/2018_Full_Year_Detail_Candle.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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And finally, a candlestick summary of every month from 2010 to 2018.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwHa4QvCbT3sYkr91IwkFwELolESZCj2GJhFJhhV9wOdcPUpDsstY2EpmV32YfQfkejNcNaedVcPgcdcM-GKyjkhRLpL2bM81-ftaIZPXk0lJI_5AA8hf-bqU3ZsicBLr7unbhXg/s1600/9_year_Monthly_Summary.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="1600" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwHa4QvCbT3sYkr91IwkFwELolESZCj2GJhFJhhV9wOdcPUpDsstY2EpmV32YfQfkejNcNaedVcPgcdcM-GKyjkhRLpL2bM81-ftaIZPXk0lJI_5AA8hf-bqU3ZsicBLr7unbhXg/s640/9_year_Monthly_Summary.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-69369575772987417952018-10-22T14:33:00.003-05:002018-10-22T14:39:33.354-05:008 Year Monthly Lake Level SummaryHere's a fun chart. This is a <a href="http://www.ozarkdragon.com/p/candlestick-charts-explained.html" target="_blank">candlestick chart</a> of each month for 8 years (2010-2017).<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidvDIIA8S7UqnlhMczUI2Qz6Di6VwVe5NwJxbCx2AWzVlrcuY0XWxrssY_ehf28L6rb4eIQmohVIJpqXAfG8CdWSpQTyu6aLTUTKu4BDyUsm5t-_zARC3pL-Yz4n9HQwheaOQa2g/s1600/Monthly_Summary_10-17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="1600" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidvDIIA8S7UqnlhMczUI2Qz6Di6VwVe5NwJxbCx2AWzVlrcuY0XWxrssY_ehf28L6rb4eIQmohVIJpqXAfG8CdWSpQTyu6aLTUTKu4BDyUsm5t-_zARC3pL-Yz4n9HQwheaOQa2g/s640/Monthly_Summary_10-17.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click on image to enlarge<br />
or click <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1NAKXGTdQsrTbqpgqnvaxORJ-TmbIMTgV" target="_blank">here</a> for a full size downloadable image</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
A couple of interesting statistics. The eight year high level and low level occurred only three months apart of each other and the difference was nearly 11 feet! That's quite dramatic for a body of water that most people's experience is less than a foot difference during the summer months. December 28, 2015's high of 663.83 was followed on March 9th, 2016 with a low of 652.92.<br />
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As for how much water passed through the gates of Bagnell Dam in those 8 years? About 19,725 BILLION gallons, or technically 19.725 Trillion gallons. That sounds like a lot of water, and it is, but comparatively speaking it's not as much as you might think. By the numbers, it took eight years for enough water to pass through Bagnell Dam to cover an area the size of Missouri to a depth of only about one and half feet (1.36 to be precise), but it was enough that it could raise the level of Lake Michigan four feet. To really put it in perspective? Water flowing over the Canadian Horseshoe falls of Niagara could pass that same amount of water in one year and fifteen days. But it's a tremendous amount of water no matter how you look at it.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10403692.post-13852427734180659632018-10-03T15:48:00.002-05:002018-10-03T15:48:22.692-05:00Here Come the LeavesRemember, while blowing your leaves into the lake is not illegal for homeowners it is frowned upon and can lead to a loss of "lake access privileges". Please dispose of your leaves properly this season.<br />
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<a href="http://www.ozarkdragon.com/2014/09/no-leaf-dumping-in-lake.html" target="_blank">Don't Dump Your Leaves!</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com