New 5 Year Moving Average Lake Level Chart (2013-2017)

Here's the average lake level chart for the past five years (averaged, 2013-2017) and will be used this year for all monthly reporting. Notice you can still see the impact of flooding in July and December (two little bumps in the graph) of 2015. Those flooding events left a scar on the data we'll be seeing for a few more years. For those wondering why the lake predominantly stays above the ideal level, simply remember the purpose of the lake, at least from Ameren's point of view, and that is to generate electricity. This is best accomplished when the lake is basically as full as it can be, maximising what is called "head height".  In Bagnell Dam's case head height averages about 100 feet throughout the year.

The five year average levels still conform nicely to the ideal guide (grey), with largest deviation coming from the draw down period in late winter early spring.  It is apparent that Ameren has no real need to strictly adhere to the lowest ideal levels for the draw down, but one of these years they're going to exercise their right and reach lower guide minimums (yellow), nearly four feet lower than the lake has seen in a long time, and shock the hell out of a lot people.

Here's the updated summary data table.

December 2016 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

Another year comes to a close and the final monthly report for 2016.  Please forgive the slight delay in posting due to the holidays.  Here's hoping for a great 2017. But let's be honest, besting 2016 shouldn't be too hard.

Levels started in sync with the 5 year moving average until mid-month when it appears Ameren decided on getting an early start to the winter draw down, dropping the lake nearly a foot below the average for this time of year. The upward spike in the moving average (grey line) around Christmas is due to last years flooding skewing the numbers.  This anomaly is something we'll see for another four years in the data, barring a record low during that same period in the coming years to offset it.

Hopefully, I'll get all of that fun end of year statistics done and posted by the end of the week!

Record Setting Wave

"It's like an ocean out there!", I've heard many say on Lake of the Ozarks on a busy weekend. Hell, I've even said it, but it is obviously an exaggeration. When it comes to big waves, the Lake of the Ozarks doesn't come close to what awaits a sailor out on the open ocean.

There are lots of headlines today over an announcement by the World Meteorological Organization of a record wave height measured by a sensor buoy.  It was 19 meters (62.3ft) high, and not just some "rogue wave".  More interestingly, everyone is reporting this as if it just happened, when in fact the data point was collected on April 2, 2013.

Buoy Location 59°07.3'N, 11°42.5'W

The record measurement is called: "Highest Significant Wave Height as measured by a Buoy", but what does "highest significant wave height" actually refer too?
In this instance, "Significant wave height recorded is four times the RMS value of the water level above the average level of the water surface measured over a 17½ minute period. The factor of 4 applied to the RMS value is because the waves are trochoidal in nature. (Waves at sea, especially those growing under the influence of the wind, tend to be short-crested, i.e. the wave crests project further above the mean level than the troughs are below it.) The ‘average’ wave period, again over a 17½ minute sample, is the average of the periods over 7 successive 2½ minute samples (each determined from the number of wave cycles in the sample)." - WMO

Okay, that's a lot to unpack, but basically it means we're not talking about a single wave calculation. For all the non-math nerds, what this essentially says is that the number represents a sampling of waves over a period of time, and the "root mean squared" (RMS is a calculation typically used to find peak magnitudes for a set of numbers) value of those wave heights was multiplied by a factor of 4 to account for the shape of the waves (wind driven in this case) and the buoy's heave (up and down) sensor sampling rate.  So what we're talking about is not a 19 meter rogue wave, but a brief series of waves that statistically calculate to be of that average height.
Those are monster waves. I've been in 40ft seas in the Pacific on a 180ft Buoy Tender and can say it was an amazing, if somewhat frightening experience. Not one I'd like to repeat.

November 2016 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

A fairly uninteresting plot, as it usually is this time of year.  Lake levels remained slightly above the 5 year moving average.  Power generation was light due to unseasonably warm weather and a lack of precipitation.

Next month, it's end of year statistics!

2016 Camden County General Election Results - President

Data provided by www.camdenmo.org

To say Trump had local support would be an understatement. With a 78% voter turnout, a 75% majority isn't a landslide, it is a landslide induced tsunami, politically speaking.

Vote 2016 - Two Amendments That Impact the Lake Area

This year's general election will definitely go down in history for... something, I'm just not quite sure what that is yet. I think we all know who we're going to vote for by now and nothing short of a shock to the system type revelation is likely to change our minds. I won't waste anyone's time trying to change minds one way or the other. This is about the other issues on the ballot, specifically two that could impact the lake area, Amendment 1 and Amendment 4.

Federal, state and local governments have learned one thing over the years, getting new taxes passed for even the noblest reasons is practically impossible and any attempt to do so through legislation is political suicide. Rather than work together to improve the efficacy of the current tax base, federal, state and local governments continually try to create new sources of revenue that the average citizen may overlook or, through careful wordcraft might even vote for themselves. One of these two amendments is straightforward enough in it's language, while the other may create some confusion.

It is important to remember that these are proposed state constitutional amendments and as such would require another statewide vote to repeal them if passed. As my college history professor would say, be very careful when it comes to voting for constitutional changes, they are difficult to reverse.

So what are these two amendments, and why are they important to the lake area?

Constitutional Amendment 1  - Update: This measure passed with 80% approval both at the state and county level (wow).
Shall Missouri continue for 10 years the one-tenth of one percent sales/use tax that is used for soil and water conservation and for state parks and historic sites, and resubmit this tax to the voters for approval in 10 years? The measure continues and does not increase the existing sales and use tax of one-tenth of one percent for 10 years. The measure would continue to generate approximately $90 million annually for soil and water conservation and operation of the state park system.

This tax is not an increase but rather a referendum on the continuation of an existing one. The Lake of the Ozarks is home to the largest of Missouri's state parks and it is very popular with visitors. It would not be helpful to remove financial resources needed for its maintenance and improvement. Also, being a lake community, it might be wise to support the soil and water conservation necessary to help preserve the lake's environmental health.

I vote yes.

Constitutional Amendment 4 - Update: This measure passed with 57% approval statewide, 67% in Camden county.
Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to prohibit a new state or local sales/use or other similar tax on any service or transaction that was not subject to a sales/use or similar tax as of January 1, 2015? Potential costs to state and local governmental entities are unknown, but could be significant. The proposal’s passage would impact governmental entity’s ability to revise their tax structures. State and local governments expect no savings from this proposal.

Okay, this one we need to talk about a bit.

Also known as the "Taxpayer Protection Act" this amendment is about preventing any potential new taxes on services, specifically personal services such as daycare, professional services such as plumbing, or health care services including doctor visits. Service and use taxes are essentially just another sales tax and as such will impact low and middle income families the most. It is important to note that these taxes, in general, do not currently exist but Missouri state legislators have tried to pass sales taxes on services initiatives in the last seven sessions, including the current one. Because this amendment is preventative law it is worded counterintuitively, a "yes" vote means that such taxes cannot be implemented and that you *don't* want to pay service taxes, ever.

The lake area economy as a whole can be considered a service based one.  We service the vacation industry and this requires a lot of service based support.  Let's take a vacation rental home for example. These types of homes require a variety of services to stay in business, everything from housekeeping to lawn work and they are needed on a very regular basis.  Vacation rental homeowners costs would go up significantly and at least some of these costs would be passed to their guests.  For second home owners, services are essential to help maintain homes that are not occupied much of the time.  Resorts and hotels rely heavily on services to maintain and improve their facilities and they too will likely pass much of theses new costs to the consumer.  Marinas servicing boats will be a major source of tax revenue as well. Voting yes to Amendment 4 could prevent the expense of vacationing at the lake from increasing significantly and the day to day expenses of our residents.

I vote yes.

Vote! For all that is good in this world do not sit out casting your vote on November 8th 2016. I know it's a hard decision... for everyone, but make it you must. People have died for us to have this right. People have died to protect this right. It is your one, concrete, obligation as an American citizen. Be informed, make a decision, take a stand, stand by your decision. - Update: Lowest voter turnout nationally in 20 years. Local voter turnout? 78% (Impressive!)

Shootout 2016

A week late, but here are some pics of the 2016 Shootout