Unmanned Drones On The Lake

 I'm going to have to give Lake Expo a lot of credit for making this blog a little more obsolete. They're starting to do some decent journalism and looking into things before most of us are really aware. Good work. So I hope I give all due credit for the inspiration of this post.

To that point there is the story today about Unmanned Surface Vehicles being spotted around The Lake.

USV - Lake Expo by Tegan Pasley

In short, a company named Simple Unmanned LLC is doing a bathymetric survey of The Lake using unmanned drones. Note: Sorry, Tegan, but your suggestion that drones would be a good idea for Door Dash is not really practical...as of yet. Does anyone remember Domino's pizza delivery on The Lake?

Anyway, Tegan reports that Water Patrol and Ameren are aware and "monitoring" the drone activity, but I want to talk about Ameren on this matter. They need to do more than just monitor, they need to act on the data. Somewhat for themselves, but mostly for property owners like me.

Sedimentation map of a boat ramp launch. Source Simple Unmanned LLC

The Lake is filling in. Despite the decades of development and subsequent improvements such as concrete swales and other erosion prevention measures, sedimentation of The Lake continues. I live at the back of a cove and can honestly say I've lost 2 feet of depth since the 70s. We have dredged (permitted of course, and only within the footprint of the slip!) prior to the ban on dredging in 2007, but overall it's a losing battle anyway. Eventually, my property will no longer be waterfront and there doesn't seem to be a lot I can do about it. It sucks for my property, but what does it mean for Ameren?

Does Ameren care if The Lake fills in? Of course, but not in anyone's lifetime. Sedimentation near the shoreline can go on for centuries without affecting the performance of the dam as a power generator. The turbines only care about "head height", and with over 600 billion gallons of water, volume is never really a problem. Unless.

Heavy sedimentation of The Lake means overall volume is reduced. Volume management is the basis for Ameren's tight-assed control of the shoreline. The volume of water stored behind a dam represents it's ability to maintain energy production in periods of changing conditions. While The Lake is fed by many sources, constituting nearly 10,000 cubic feet per second flow at all times, prolonged and severe drought would have an impact. Meaning in times of extended drought, the reservoir could drain faster than it is replenished. Maintaining The Lake's ability to retain as much water as possible mediates such issues. 

Think of it this way. If the contour of the Osage River valley had been deeper and steeper, before it was flooded by Bagnell, then the main channel of The Lake would be less wide than it is, and there would be far few fewer coves, but the dam itself would still be able to generate as much power. The only difference is that it would be far more susceptible to rainfall, closer to a "run of the river" style waterwheel power generation. See my lengthy article on how Bagnell Dam works. In other terms, Tam Sauk Dam, a completely different type of dam, used more as a battery than a generator, can produce more power than Bagnell using a fraction of the amount of water. It just can't do it for very long.

As a power generating system, Ameren isn't too worried about sedimentation, but somebody is or Simple Unmanned would not have been contracted to perform this very expensive work. I wanted to do something similar with side-scan sonar systems, but didn't really see the value in a full detailed bathymetric data set for The Lake. It would be fascinating though and I do hope the results of this survey, and the data will be shared with the public (or me!).

March 2024 Lake Levels and Flow

 I was not going to do these monthly summaries any longer, but with March's rare "double-dip" draw down low, I thought it was worth showing. The second, low at the end of the month was only 2.28 inches above the lowest level set on March 5th. 653.92 and 654.11 respectively, with April starting even lower by about an inch.

The Decade That Was (2010-2019) - Enter Climate Change

A new decade is upon us so it's time to take a look a the decade that was in terms of data. Getting right to it, below is the candlestick summary chart for lake levels and flow for the period of 2010-2019. If you're not familiar with this style of chart you can click here for a full explanation.

Lake Levels and Flow Rates for 2010-2019

The graph (click to enlarge) is a construct of 10 years of hourly data consisting of 87,600 data points. While I wouldn't dignify that much data as Big Data, it is a significant enough number that certain trends might be statistically significant.

So what can 87,600 data points tell us about the Lake of the Ozarks? Obviously it can show what has happened over the past ten years, but more interesting is that it may also indicate what will happen in the future. I'm not talking about predicting daily lake levels, or flow rates, but rather trends. One trend that stands out, almost visually, is the gradual increase in total flow over the years. If you compare the actual data for total yearly flow from 2010-2014 to the period of 2015-2019, you'll see that 10.652 trillion gallons passed through Bagnell Dam in the first half of the decade and 16.107 trillion gallons in the second half. That's an increase of 66% which is rather significant. You can easily see this trend by the graph alone comparing the left half orange bar heights to the right half. The latter half of the decade also contains the highest monthly flow rates and two record flooding events in July and December of 2015.

If that's not obvious from the first graph, let's look at a comparison of the first five years of the decade and the last from an average daily flow point of view. Below is a two-line graph, the green representing 2010-14, and the red 2015-19. From this graph it's even easier to see the difference in the latter half of the decade. With the exception of early spring, which in of itself may be statistically relevant, the period from 2015-2019 consistently shows a higher average flow rate. Even more interesting is that flow rates remain high throughout the summer months, rather than tapering off after spring. This means, more water, flowing all the time.



Climate change is not just about a hotter earth but the impact it has on the water cycle which has far reaching effects. The Lake of the Ozarks is very much a part of that water cycle and Bagnell Dam's ability to manage the changes in the water cycle is critical to the future of the Lake of the Ozarks. We'll be exploring this subject in greater detail in coming posts.

2019 Full Year Lake Level and Flow Rates Review

The amount of water that has flowed through Bagnell Dam this year is truly astonishing. Here's the big picture.



Nearly 3 times the "normal" flow for one year due to flooding. While the Lake of the Ozarks suffered no direct effects of the surrounding waters, over 37% of operational time was spent in maximum turbine flow conditions. How much of that interpolated into power generation, only Ameren knows, but it was there for the taking.

Here's how December itself looked on the daily candlestick graph.



And the hourly detail.


And finally we can now see the daily candlestick graph for the entire year. (click any image to enlarge)



And the monthly summary version

How Expensive Are Homes on the Lake of the Ozarks?

From Redbook Magazine Online here are the top most expensive lakes to live on in the U.S. (from lowest to highest)

Boone Lake TN                     $1.37M avg
Lake Martin AL                     $2.95M avg
Lake Burton GA                    $3.02M avg
Long Lake MN                      $3.13M avg
Smith Mountain Lake VA      $3.4M avg
White Rock Lake TX            $4.3M avg
Lake Pend Oreille, IA            $4.48M avg
Fort Loudoun Lake TN         $4.7M avg
Lake Pontchartrain LA          $4.7M avg
Lake George NY                   $5.32 M avg
Lake Champlain                    $5.7M
Lake Michigan                      $6.35 M avg
Lake Travis TX                     $10.86 M average
Lake Austin TX                    $12.9 Million Avg
Lake Washington WA           $45 Million example price
#1 Lake Tahoe                      $75 Million example price

Anyone who has visited the Lake of the Ozarks is typically amazed at the number of homes along its vast shoreline. Visitors thoughts inevitably turn too wondering just how much it costs to buy a home here, or if it might be a good investment. For the most part, home investments on the lake are like anywhere else, but with an interesting twist on the old location-location-location rule. The primary location factor for a lake home is of course waterfront. As the decades have passed since the lake was formed lake property has gone through many changes, campgrounds of the 50s and 60s soon succumbed to condominiums and homes, while larger lots with modest summer cabins became full sized second homes in the 80s and 90s. Shawnee Bend, once mostly pristine forested shoreline became an opportunity to build entire communities once the new bridge made access more reasonable from the east side. Because of these often slow but sometimes rapid changes it's not unusual to see homes approaching the seven figure mark adjacent to a home half the price. With some area exceptions such as Shawnee Bend shoreline homes are usually a mix of homes ranging from summer cabins to multi-family "McMansions".

When it comes to lake homes, the waterfront is every bit as much of a factor to price as the home itself.

Are lakefront homes on the Lake of the Ozarks "expensive" relative to other lakes in the U.S.? The story mentioned at the start of this post was picked up by Redbook magazine and MSN, but I was a little dismayed to not see the Lake of the Ozarks on the list. I know many lakes across the country, and there is no question that the Lake of the Ozarks is the most developed I know of, so how could it not make the list? We all marvel at many of the homes on the lake and the clear opulence they demonstrate, so the report would seem to indicate there are lakes that command even higher prices? After some quick digging I discovered the source of the article's information and downloaded the entire report. Turns out, "most expensive" is literally what was meant by the news articles, but that is not the whole story and the report from which the list was created is far more interesting in detail..

But first, back to that list of the most expensive lakes in the U.S.. If we define most expensive as being average price, the Lake of the Ozarks doesn't make the cut. Sure, we have multi-million dollar homes but only about 1% of Lake of the Ozarks homes are valued at $2 million or more. This is in comparison to the most expensive lake, Butler Lake in Florida, with 50% of its homes priced at +$2Million. But again, that doesn't tell the whole story since this list does not factor the number of homes on any given lake. Consider that if there is a small lake with a few multi-million dollar homes then it can likely boast at being THE most expensive lake to live on. What is the real question we should be asking? Real estate is very much a supply and demand industry and any lake with only a few homes to sell is quite a different market than one with many thousands. As an investment, in order to understand the value of a home we must take a look at the lake's total market value, the combined total of all the homes and property on a lake.

Let's go back to our most expensive lake for example. The total market value for Butler Lake, is about $160 million dollars, and this includes available land. So how does that compare to Lake of the Ozarks? The total market value for the Lake of the Ozarks is $392 million dollars, well over twice Butler Lakes total value. Unsurprisingly the Lake of the Ozarks is the largest lake market in the state of Missouri, followed by Table Rock Lake with a respectable market value of $252 million dollars. The lake with the largest total market value in the U.S. is Lake Michigan at $1.3 BILLION dollars. Surprised? Don't be. Remember we are talking about lakes, not beachfront property on the ocean and lake Michigan is a HUGE lake, with 500 miles more shoreline and hosts many major metropolitan cities like Chicago and Milwaukee. In terms of total market value the Lake of the Ozarks ranks as the 8th largest market for lake homes in the U.S. Excluding available property, meaning lakes that are more fully developed, Lake of the Ozarks ranks 5th in the U.S. for largest market.

So let's take a look at the numbers for lakes within the state of Missouri itself. When we ask the question all over again as to which lake is the most expensive, the Lake of the Ozarks comes in second with an average home price of $363K compared to Lake Springfield's average of $475K. Again though, the number of homes is a factor as the Lake of the Ozarks dominates as the largest home and property market of all the lakes in Missouri, with Lake Springfield not even making the top 5 in total market value despite it's "most expensive" status.

Here's a breakdown of the housing market for the three largest lake home markets in the state.

The Lake of the Ozarks cannot boast being the most expensive lake in the U.S. but that is a good thing in my opinion from a real estate investment point of view. Our lake can boast a healthy variety of homes and prices to make for a vibrant market and cater to just about anyone's price range. Like any real estate purchase a persons specific needs are what is important and whether it be a condominium, summer cabin, second home, or retirement McMansion, buyers can find just about anything they need.

January 2019 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

Lake levels, lake levels. Is that all this blog is about?

What can I say, I have a life. Rest assured, there's plenty more to talk about and we'll be getting to it this year. But for now...

January is the official start to the lake draw down. When Ameren allows lake levels to fall below "normal" in order to accommodate shoreline work, and prepare for the coming spring rains. Spring is coming. My black tail hawks are working on their nest, and the groundhogs have started sniffing around for a place to start a new tunnel under my house, so I know it's coming.

The lake has already started it's inexorable fall to the March low. Below is the hourly detail with the grey line being the new moving five year average.

And below the daily candlestick

All in all, nothing remarkable and a nice steady incremental start to the draw down.

2018 Annual Lake Levels and Flow Review

Another year has come and gone, and with the annual draw down to prepare the lake for 2019 only days away, let's take a look at what happened in 2018.

Here's a quick summary graph that I made to try and put things in perspective. The lake is still just a flooded river and water flows in and out constantly. Putting up raw numbers like nearly one and a half trillion gallons of water passing through Bagnell Dam sounds impressive but what can we do to give it real meaning?  I've provided some conversions to help get a grasp of just how much water that is. Also, the circle in the middle with percentages indicates Bagnell Dam's operational statistics, how much of the time electricity actually was being generated. The answer is only about 25% of the time.

Operations in flood conditions were negligible, and I doubt the gates were actually open at all, I simply calculate that the maximum flow through the turbines is anything over 37,500cfs (cubic feet per second), but improvements to the turbines may have increased that number. I'll have to revisit that.  The more telling number is the 75.8% operational time below 5000cfs, an indication no commercial electrical power is being generated beyond the "house" generators used to power the Osage Energy Plant itself. This is a very low amount of power generation, and may be due to the extensive work being done this year on Bagnell. In short, Bagnell Dam was probably operating at a loss this year.

As far a lake levels themselves are concerned, this year is probably the most unremarkable we've had since 2012. Levels were right along the guide curve with no surprises.  Below is the candlestick summary for each month of the year.

Below is the daily candlestick for the entire year.

And finally, a candlestick summary of every month from 2010 to 2018.

8 Year Monthly Lake Level Summary

Here's a fun chart. This is a candlestick chart of each month for 8 years (2010-2017).

Click on image to enlarge
or click here for a full size downloadable image

A couple of interesting statistics. The eight year high level and low level occurred only three months apart of each other and the difference was nearly 11 feet! That's quite dramatic for a body of water that most people's experience is less than a foot difference during the summer months.  December 28, 2015's high of 663.83 was followed on March 9th, 2016 with a low of 652.92.

As for how much water passed through the gates of Bagnell Dam in those 8 years? About 19,725 BILLION gallons, or technically 19.725 Trillion gallons. That sounds like a lot of water, and it is, but comparatively speaking it's not as much as you might think. By the numbers, it took eight years for enough water to pass through Bagnell Dam to cover an area the size of Missouri to a depth of only about one and half feet (1.36 to be precise), but it was enough that it could raise the level of Lake Michigan four feet. To really put it in perspective? Water flowing over the Canadian Horseshoe falls of Niagara could pass that same amount of water in one year and fifteen days. But it's a tremendous amount of water no matter how you look at it.

New Lake Level Graphing

Data visualization is a hot topic in my industry, and one I personally enjoy despite not being very good at it.  One of the things I've been wanting to do for sometime is to add what are called "candlestick" graphs to the monthly lake level reports. I've done this type of charting before, in February 2014, when Ameren basically sent a small tsunami down the Osage river from a rapid discharge from the lake. I liked the chart, but it was bit labor intensive. I think I've figured out an easy way to produce it on a monthly basis now. For those familiar with stock market analysis, candlestick charts are the preferred graph for looking at stock prices over time. They tend to weed out the "noise" of daily trade prices and focus on the more important trends.

Using candlestick charts on lake levels will allow us to focus more on starting and ending levels and diminish the relevancy of the day to day highs and lows, while visually emphasizing large swings. For those who are not familiar with candlestick charts, or how to read them, they are quite simple but I've written a guide here, as it relates to tracking lake levels.

So here's the first, going back to July's data. (I even dolled it up with a nice background!)

As you can see, there's only 31 data points now, one for each day, rather than 746, one for each hour of the month, while basically providing the same information detail.

I'll try to add other elements to the graph such as the 5 year moving average and flow rate as time allows, but for now, I think this will be a great addition to the monthly lake level post. Hope you like it!

June 2018 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

Late on the post for June levels, but it's summer after all. Lake levels are where they should be and behaving predictably. Nothing notable to see and that's a good thing. Keep in mind the narrow range of data makes for an exaggerated graph scale. In reality, the difference all month long in lake levels is little more than 1 foot.

May 2018 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

It's summertime so there's rarely anything interesting for the charts. A minor exception this year is that we started the month well below the expected average but managed to get levels normalized by Memorial weekend to kick things off.

Lake Levels Stay Near Year Lows Despite the Rains

As I look out on the lake every morning I'm still a little surprised as to how low the level remains for for this time of year.  By my record keeping, the five year moving average lake level for this date (indicated in orange in the chart), March 28th is 655.36 feet, more than a foot higher than it is today.  So what gives?

Obviously the threat of flooding is on Ameren's mind and from the chart below, which is an incomplete graph for this month, they are adjusting flow (in green) through the dam in direct response to rising lake levels. It's a clear attempt to keep lake levels where they are in what appears to be a purely reactionary response to the rains as they come. Ongoing repairs to the dam may be the prime mover here since there's really no other reason to keep levels this low now.

Lake Draw Down 2018 - Are We There Yet? Final Update

March 15th -. I could easily be jumping the gun here, but I'm going  to go out on a limb and say we hit the draw down peak yesterday around 9am with a low of 654.30.  With discharge flow dropping below 4,000cfs it appears Ameren is content to let whatever rain occurs in the next 72 hours to accumulate and mild temperatures means there's no real demand for power generation. With all that in mind, and given we are nearly two weeks past the average peak low date, I'm pretty confident lake levels will begin the slow and steady rise toward spring numbers.

Below is the 9 year chart of lake levels for the period January-April. Yes, I know It's only March 15th and things could change, but I was kind of anxious to get this post done. No, that's no glitch in the data on the far right. The lake rose over four feet in about 36 hours last year.

Update = I've got a jump on the chart for March here

The chart, with nine years of data it's getting difficult to keep neat. Here's how to read it. The current levels for this year are in red, while the nine year average is in bold green.  The previous years are in various shades of grey starting with black for last year fading with each successive year further back in time.

March 22nd update below - yep, I called it. Lake levels are rising from the low of 654.3 on 3/14.

March 27th update below - Nope. I didn't call it.  Lake levels have dropped since the last update to it's lowest level of the year, 653.91 at 8am this morning. It's come up slightly since then but I won't venture to think we've hit the low.  I swear, sometimes I think Ameren reads this blog and adjusts levels just to prove me wrong.  ;-) As you can see, we're just about to match the latest date for reaching low level in the past 9 years which happened March 31st, 2011.

Final Update: Given the low levels late in the year for 2018 I decided just to wait until May 1st before a final update. The maximum drawdown level for 2018 came on March 27th at 653.91. A very typical peak low level.  Nine year data average for date and level is now March 11th, at an average level of 654.82.

Below is a simple graph of just 9 year hourly levels average. (= Green graph above)

February 2018 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

Ameren announced in early February that the low level draw down would probably occur on February 19th.  Looking at the chart above would seem to confirm they hit their target at just under 655', but I wouldn't count on the draw down being over  just yet. As you can see the recent rains elevated the lake by nearly a foot and half and power generation (green spikes) has already begun bringing levels back down. Typically early March (see the orange 5 year average line) is when the lowest levels are reached and the spring rains haven't begun in earnest so it is possible they will draw the lake back down toward the 655' mark.

Flow Rate Facts for 2017

Bagnell Dam, on average passed through about 12,500cfs of water every hour in 2017. That's about 93,400 gallons every second, again on average. The graph below breaks down the percentage of time operated at specific flow rate ranges.

The total amount of water passing through Bagnell Dam for 2017 was just under 3 TRILLION gallons.

The maximum flow rate was 86,432cfs on April 30th. That's nearly an Olympic size pool every second!

For power generation it is assumed that total generation operation time is a combination of typical, maximum, and flood rates, or 41%.

September 2017 Lake Levels and Discharge Flow

A somewhat atypical September, as indicated by deviation from the five year average, but nothing too radical.  Generation was moderate.

July 2017 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

A very typical July chart with start and ending levels almost exactly at the 5 year average with power generation coinciding nicely with temperature demands for energy.  I'm sure this helped keep levels at full pool despite the modest lack of rain. Boring, but I like boring when it comes to this data. It means things are predictable and orderly.

One more month of peak summer to go.  Enjoy!

Lake Accident Statistics for 2016

As part of the annual "How Safe is the Lake of the Ozarks" page update, here's the breakdown of incidents reported for all of 2016.  This is only for the the Lake of the Ozarks, and only those incidents reported by the Missouri Water Patrol.

In summary, some 133 incidents were reported last year and one breakdown is to look at the numbers by severity.

Number of Non-Injury Incidents 74
Fatal Incidents                           8
Serious Injury                                   9
Moderate Injury                         25
Minor Injury                                 17

Total                                              133

2016 didn’t start off well for boating and injury incidents on the lake, with the first fatality in January during and unseasonably warm weekend. The final breakdown of incidents for the year by description is as follows:

NEAR DROWNING                                                              2
FIRE/EXPLOSION (NON FUEL)                                              1
FIRE/EXPLOSION (UNKNOWN ORIGIN)                      4
COLLISION WITH FIXED OBJECT                                    18
COLLISION WITH WATERCRAFT                                    17
COLLISION WITH FLOATING OBJECT                              1
COLLISION WITH DOCKED WATERCRAFT                      8
CAPSIZING                                                                              3
GROUNDING                                                                      4
SWAMPING                                                                              1
DROWNING                                                                              6
PERSON(S) FALLS OVERBOARD                                      2
PERSON(S) IMPACTS WATERCRAFT                            34
PERSON(S) DEPARTS WATERCRAFT VOLUNTARILY      1
PERSON(S) STRUCK BY PROP/WATER JET                      4
PERSON(S) EJECTED FROM WATERCRAFT                      9
TOWED WATERSPORT MISHAP                                    18
Total                                                                                  133

From a "Fatality Rate" point of view, which is what next month's U.S.Coast Guard report for 2016 will focus on, the Lake of the Ozarks remains unchanged from 2015 with 8 fatalities and likely within the average for the entire state.

It may be possible to analyze this data into more meaningful risk assessments but would need to be looked at on an incident by incident basis for extenuating circumstances such as time of day. Incidents involving "fixed objects" is a top category, but what were the objects? No wake buoys? Docks?  Hit a no wake buoy and you might throw an outdrive, but hit a dock and serious damage and injury is likely.

As time goes on I'll keep these reports and start tracking them. With this kind of data we can begin to track trends, but at this time I see nothing to indicate the lake has become more, or less, dangerous than it has been in years past.  As the 2017 season begins in earnest, here's hoping that everyone has a safe and fun summer!

March 2017 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

Lake levels began rising on March 9th towards full pool by Memorial Weekend. March levels started low and remain about a half a foot under the five year moving average (in orange). Very modest power generation and days of rain should help bring the lake to normal conditions without difficulty. Summer is coming!

February 2017 Lake Levels and Flow Rates

A model February operational chart (see how closely it follows the 5 year moving average - in orange).  There's no guarantee lake levels won't dip lower over the next few weeks, but it appears we reached a winter drawdown low of 653.92ft on February 26th, about 10 days sooner than the average but just a couple of days sooner than my February 28th prediction. Not bad!

Flow rates were quite average as well and the lake should start rising slowly from current levels to about 656 by the end of March. If you're going to get any work done on the shoreline, time's awasting.