Friday, March 15, 2024

"Lakefront Empire" Review S1 E1

"The Midwest Coast"


 I just watched the first episode of HGTV's "Lakefront Empire". While I'm pleased the producers seem to be avoiding the same formula as shows that feature more interpersonal drama then home listings, I was quite disappointed in how The Lake area was being presented. Yes, I use capital letters when referring to The Lake, because it is THE BEST LAKE IN THE WORLD.

The show follows the somewhat tired formula of interviewing buyers and realtors as they search for the home of their dreams here at the Lake of the Ozarks, but the producers seem to lack any real sense of what makes The Lake so special. This is clear in their choice of realtors and the homes showcased, both realtors and homes lacked any charm whatsoever. I've have seen many, many homes over the decades and what was shown in the first episode, ranging from $500K to $2M were homes I would not have given a second glance. Not they they were bad homes! Far from it, but they were not especially appealing, charming, or unique. In my opinion The Lake has a plethora of more interesting and exciting homes to choose from at any given time. I actually felt sorry for the folks about to drop $2 million on a home that was simply...blah.

That's the good part of this review.

Here's the bad part.

What the hell? I saw a real estate agent telling potential buyers that mentioned having parties in their new home about "everybody using" in Party Cove, and practically in the same breath as telling them she spent 15 years in federal prison? I watched a second realtor revealing a drunken past and had to come "crawling" back to his family for a job? THESE are the realtors that the producers chose to showcase homes at The Lake? I'm sorry but if I was a potential Lake Ozark home buyer , I would have been turned off completely.

And did I hear anything more than the tired old "1100 miles of shoreline, more than the coast of California" to tell the world how special our lake really is? There was bragging about how nearly every home comes with a dock, but was anything said about the quality of that 1100 mile shoreline or how it affects their docks and the value of a home? How about the uniqueness of The Lake that allows us to have restaurants and bars accessible by water? From what I saw, you might as well have been looking at lakefront property on Lake Hamilton AR, or some Corps of Engineers lake.

Dis-Honorable mention for using segue shots of the lake that make it look like boaters will have it all to themselves on any given day. But now I'm just being mean.

Hopefully future episodes will do better.

2024 Drawdown Is Well Over

 As predicted, with the start of the rainy season, lake levels stayed at the low point for only the briefest of time. With Paddlefish season starting today, and mild temperatures, I don't see any return to lower levels happening. We are heading toward full pool now.

And with that, I'll call the 2024 lake drawdown watch ...done!


Wednesday, March 06, 2024

14 Year Average Levels vs Guide

 This is a comparison of Lake Ozark levels against the guide curve Ameren is supposed to follow. Pretty darn close.

Oh yeah...that bottom orange guide curve? That's how low they are allowed to go in an "emergency". 

Lake Drawdown Watch - Part 2 - Are we there yet?

March 6th, 2024.

With up to 2 inches of rain forecasted for the lake area over the next 48 hours, today could well end up being the low point of the year at 653.92 feet above sea level around midnight this morning. Here's the chart.



Sharp readers may well ask, what happened to February 29th? And you would be correct, there is no data for that day on this chart. Which is why the graph takes a quick dive from Feb 28th to March 1st. I would chart it if it happened to be the lowest point of the year, but my spreadsheets just do not account for the extra day and I tend to ignore it for these purposes.

While it's hard to see actual levels and dates on the above image, the difference between the average (in orange) and this year (in ...turquois?) levels may look significant but it is really only six inches. Each horizontal bar represents 3 inches. This year's drawdown, while about as low as we've been in the past fourteen years, is far from exceptional. The lowest levels for this data set was 2021 and 2016 at 652.86 and 652.83 respectively, over a foot lower than today's low.

In short, if this is the low level of the year, it's timing and depth would be well within average.

How long we stay at this bottom is the only real question left, but it's pretty clear it won't be long.

Friday, February 16, 2024

Lake Drawdown Watch 2024

 

With my newly updated 14 year average (in orange), we can now track the current year's drawdown.



The precipitous drop in mid-January was due to the extreme cold nationally, and Bagnell Dam was producing power (based on flow rates).

As you can see by the multi-year average, we're not at the bottom yet, but things seems to be progressing along as expected. With today's level at 656.3 we have at least another foot to go.

On my Bingo card, I have March 10th, at 10:00am, with a level of 654.57 as the time and level for the lowest point of the year. A point in time I like to think of now as the "Unofficial End of Winter at the Lake"


What 14 Years of Lake Level Data Says About the Annual Drawdown

 I'm finally caught up on adding the last few years of data to my long running tally of lake levels and analysis. The data set now includes hourly levels and flows from 2010-2023. Below is the detailed graph of hourly lake levels averages for that time period throughout the year.

Not much has changed from my last big average chart for 2010-2019, the additional four years of data only smoothed out the graph a bit. Of note though, is the little bump at the end of the year caused by the intense flooding in December 2015, which is still impacting the averages for that time of year.

As far as the annual drawdown is concerned, 14 years of data shows the longest, lowest stretch is from March 6th-13th with lake levels averaging just under 655ft, with a peak low of average of 654.57 on March 9th.

Friday, February 09, 2024

The End of Tunnel Dam

I've been a fan of the Tunnel Dam ever since I discovered it while looking for places to kayak in the lake area many years ago. My "discovery" was a bit embarrassing actually. I spent a lot of time at Ha Ha Tonka even before it was a state park and I had never heard of Tunnel Dam until the early 2000s.

The big news is that Show Me Electric Power Cooperative has elected to not renew the license to operate the hydro-electric facility, and it appears power generation will cease this year. Lake Expo has a very good article on the situation and I recommend reading it for more information on the local impact, including this nice history link from the Show Me Electric Power Cooperative

Best described by Show-Me Electric, "Attention was especially attracted to one potential site where a natural cave or tunnel pierced the base of a narrow ridge, bypassing a meander of the river, thus affording the opportunity of obtaining an artificial fall of water and creating a forty-foot head for a hydraulic turbine." In the case of Tunnel Dam, this 300 ft. wide ridge cuts through six miles of "meandering" river.

Satellite view of Tunnel Dam next to its Generator House

By creating Tunnel Dam, Lake Niangua was also created, which is fed by the Niangua River, a river as beautiful as any in Missouri, only less protected, and surrounded mostly by private farm land. Lake Niangua is very tranquil and beautiful as well, but is too small to be anything more than a nice place to fish.

Tunnel Dam is five miles southwest of Ha Ha Tonka (as the crow flies). The image below tries to show location and scale of everything.

The Niangua River is a major source of water for the Lake of the Ozarks, and with the fate of the dam structure itself, and the lake it forms, in question we need to examine the potential impact to the Lake of the Ozarks.

If the dam is removed in a controlled manner, the impact on the Lake of the Ozarks would be negligible, but if the dam remains, but not properly maintained, it could ultimately fail. A catastrophic failure, a total and rapid collapse, would cause a great deal of damage downstream, all the way into the Lake of the Ozarks.

But lets assume the dam is decommissioned in a controlled manner, whereby it is removed and any sudden deluge of water avoided. What this means for the Niangua River is an uninterrupted flow of water from Hwy 44, past Bennett Springs, all the way into Lake of the Ozarks. We already have a sanctioned 12 mile float below Tunnel Dam, called the Big Niangua River Trail that ends at the Lake of the Ozarks, but with the Tunnel Dam removed, this could turn into many dozens of miles. The potential for floats and water traffic goes beyond just kayaks and canoes. I have paddled up river from Lake Niangua and can say it is a very serviceable river for small power boats. My jet boat runs the Current River all the time in water barely knee deep, even less. Who knows how far up the Niangua River one could reach from the Lake of the Ozarks without the Tunnel Dam structure in the way. 

NOTE: Full disclosure, Whistler Bridge, just below Tunnel Dam is an impassable low water concrete bridge so any boat traffic would have to remain above or below it, but that barrier too could be removed. While I am a bit sad Tunnel Dam's life is ending, I think the idea of the Niangua River being a serviceable recreational artery all the way into the Lake of the Ozarks intriguing.